Where are we: Monday morning top of the ticket report
Since I’m googling anyway to find out what the score is on the eve of election day, I figured I might as well share what I find:
Governor: Jerry Brown (D) v. Meg Whitman (R)
RealClearPolitics.com Poll Average: Brown +6, “Leans Dem”
NYTimes’ FiveThirtyEight Model: 96% chance Dem will win. Brown 52.6%, Whitman 44.7%
Pollster.com: 90% chance Brown will win. Aggregate: 49.9% to 42.3%
Intrade.com futures market: Brown to win 88.1%, Whitman 5%
Senate: Barbara Boxer (D) v. Carly Fiorina (R)
RealClearPolitics.com Poll Average: Boxer +4.2, but still a toss-up.
NYTimes’ FiveThirtyEight Model: 95% chance Dem will win. Boxer 51.4%, Fiorina 45.8%
Pollster.com: 87% chance Boxer wins, aggregate: 49.1% to 44.6%
Intrade.com futures market: Boxer to win 86.5%, Fiorina 17%
So, in short, while Republicans may score big nationwide, that doesn’t look like it will be the case in California.