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Where are we: Monday morning top of the ticket report

November 1, 2010 - 8:06 am

Since I’m googling anyway to find out what the score is on the eve of election day, I figured I might as well share what I find:

Governor: Jerry Brown (D) v. Meg Whitman (R) Poll Average: Brown +6, “Leans Dem”

NYTimes’ FiveThirtyEight Model: 96% chance Dem will win. Brown 52.6%, Whitman  44.7% 90% chance Brown will win. Aggregate: 49.9% to 42.3% futures market: Brown to win 88.1%, Whitman 5%

Senate: Barbara Boxer (D) v. Carly Fiorina (R) Poll Average: Boxer +4.2, but still a toss-up.

NYTimes’ FiveThirtyEight Model: 95% chance Dem will win. Boxer 51.4%, Fiorina 45.8%  87% chance Boxer wins, aggregate: 49.1% to 44.6% futures market: Boxer to win 86.5%, Fiorina 17%

So, in short, while Republicans may score big nationwide, that doesn’t look like it will be the case in California.

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